Public Good Provision:A Tale of Tax Evasion and Corruption

We develop a model that links tax evasion, corruption, and public good provision. In our model, citizens pay or evade taxes into the public fund, which a corrupt governor redistributes. Each citizen forms expectations about the amount of public goods the governor should provide. After observing the actual level of public goods, a citizen punishes the governor if this level is below his expectations. We describe three types of equilibria: tax evasion, efficient public good provision, and symmetric mixed-strategy. We show that the highest expectations can lead to no free riding (tax evasion) and the efficient level of public good provision even with the corrupt governor and without punishment for tax evasion

Can Australian multiyear droughts and wet spells be generated in the absence of oceanic variability?

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 29 (2016): 6201-6221, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0694.1.Anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole, have been previously blamed for extended droughts and wet periods in Australia. Yet the extent to which Australian wet and dry spells can be driven by internal atmospheric variability remains unclear. Natural variability experiments are examined to determine whether prolonged extreme wet and dry periods can arise from internal atmospheric and land variability alone. Results reveal that this is indeed the case; however, these dry and wet events are found to be less severe than in simulations incorporating coupled oceanic variability. Overall, ocean feedback processes increase the magnitude of Australian rainfall variability by about 30% and give rise to more spatially coherent rainfall impacts. Over mainland Australia, ocean interactions lead to more frequent extreme events, particularly during the rainy season. Over Tasmania, in contrast, ocean–atmosphere coupling increases mean rainfall throughout the year. While ocean variability makes Australian rainfall anomalies more severe, droughts and wet spells of duration longer than three years are equally likely to occur in both atmospheric- and ocean-driven simulations. Moreover, they are essentially indistinguishable from what one expects from a Gaussian white noise distribution. Internal atmosphere–land-driven megadroughts and megapluvials that last as long as ocean-driven events are also identified in the simulations. This suggests that oceanic variability may be less important than previously assumed for the long-term persistence of Australian rainfall anomalies. This poses a challenge to accurate prediction of long-term dry and wet spells for Australia.This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) under ARC-DP1094784, ARC-DP-150101331, ARC-FL100100214, and funding for C.C.U. from the National Science Foundation under AGS-1602455 and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.2017-02-1

Tax Evasion, Embezzlement and Public Good Provision

This paper presents a model that links tax evasion, embezzlement, and the public good provision and suggests how they are interrelated. We characterize the conditions for three types of Nash equilibria: tax evasion, embezzlement, and efficient public good provision

Cold tongue and warm pool ENSO events in CMIP5 : mean state and future projections

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 2861–2885, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00437.1.The representation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Niños are stronger than La Niñas) and between the two types of El Niños: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Niños are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Niños. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Niñas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO amplitude around December; however, the seasonal evolution of ENSO has a large range of behavior across the models. The CMIP5 models generally reproduce the duration of CT El Niños but have biases in the evolution of the other types of events. The evolution of WP El Niños suggests that the decay of this event occurs through heat content discharge in the models rather than the advection of SST via anomalous zonal currents, as seems to occur in observations. No consistent changes are seen across the models in the location and magnitude of maximum SST anomalies, frequency, or temporal evolution of these events in a warmer world.2014-10-1

Evaluation of monsoon seasonality and the tropospheric biennial oscillation transitions in the CMIP models

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L20713, doi:10.1029/2012GL053322.Characteristics of the Indian and Australian summer monsoon systems, their seasonality and interactions are examined in a variety of observational datasets and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) climate models. In particular, it is examined whether preferred monsoon transitions between the two regions and from one year to another, that form parts of the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation, can lead to improved predictive skill. An overall improvement in simulation of seasonality for both monsoons is seen in CMIP5 over CMIP3, with most CMIP5 models correctly simulating very low rainfall rates outside of the monsoon season. The predictability resulting from each transition is quantified using a Monte Carlo technique. The transition from strong/weak Indian monsoon to strong/weak Australian monsoon shows ∼15% enhanced predictability in the observations, in estimating whether the following monsoon will be stronger/weaker than the climatology. Most models also successfully simulate this transition. However, enhanced predictability for other transitions is less clear.This project was supported by funding from the Australian Research Council (DP110100601) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. This work was also supported by an award under the Merit Allocation Scheme on the NCI National Facility at the ANU2013-04-2

How did ocean warming affect Australian rainfall extremes during the 2010/2011 La Niña event?

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 9942–9951, doi:10.1002/2015GL065948.Extreme rainfall conditions in Australia during the 2010/2011 La Niña resulted in devastating floods claiming 35 lives, causing billions of dollars in damages, and far-reaching impacts on global climate, including a significant drop in global sea level and record terrestrial carbon uptake. Northeast Australian 2010/2011 rainfall was 84% above average, unusual even for a strong La Niña, and soil moisture conditions were unprecedented since 1950. Here we demonstrate that the warmer background state increased the likelihood of the extreme rainfall response. Using atmospheric general circulation model experiments with 2010/2011 ocean conditions with and without long-term warming, we identify the mechanisms that increase the likelihood of extreme rainfall: additional ocean warming enhanced onshore moisture transport onto Australia and ascent and precipitation over the northeast. Our results highlight the role of long-term ocean warming for modifying rain-producing atmospheric circulation conditions, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation for Australia during future La Niña events.Australian Research Council (ARC); ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; ARC Laureate Fellowship program; Penzance and John P. Chase Memorial Endowed Funds; Ocean Climate Change Institute at WHOI2016-05-1

Functional food-related bioactive compounds: effect of sorghum phenolics on cancer cells in vivo and conversion of short- to long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in duck liver in vivo

Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of Human NutritionWeiqun WangMany functional food related bioactive compounds have been discovered and draw the attention of scientists. This dissertation focused on sorghum phenolic compounds and omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. Study 1: phenolic agents in plant foods have been associated with chronic disease prevention, especially cancer. However, a direct evidence and the underlying mechanisms are mostly unknown. This study selected 13 sorghum accessions and was aim to investigate: (1) the effect of extracted sorghum phenolics on inhibiting cancer cell growth using hepatocarcinoma HepG2 and colorectal adenocarcinoma Caco-2 cell lines; (2) and the underlying mechanisms regarding cytotoxicity, cell cycle interruption, and apoptosis induction. Treatment of HepG2 and Caco-2 cells with the extracted phenolics at 0-200 M GAE (Gallic acid equivalent) up to 72 hrs resulted in a dose- and time-dependent reduction in cell number. The underlying mechanism of cell growth inhibition was examined by flow cytometry, significant inverse correlations were observed between the decreased cell number and increased cell cycle arrest at G2/M or induced apoptosis cells in both HepG2 and Caco-2 cells. The cytotoxic assay showed that the sorghum phenolic extracts were non-toxic. Although it was less sensitive, a similar inhibitory impact and underlying mechanisms were found in Caco-2 cells. These results indicated for the 1st time that a direct inhibition of either HepG2 or Caco-2 cell growth by phenolic extracts from13 selected sorghum accessions was due to cytostatic and apoptotic but not cytotoxic mechanisms. In addition, these findings suggested that sorghum be a valuable functional food by providing sustainable phenolics for potential cancer prevention. Study 2: omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (ω-3 PUFAs) especially long-chain ω-3 PUFAs, have been associated with potential health benefits in chronic disease prevention. However, the conversion rate from short- to long-chain ω-3 PUFAs is limited in human body. This study was aim to assess the modification of fatty acid profiles as well as investigate the conversion of short- to long-chain ω-3 PUFAs in the liver of Shan Partridge duck after feeding various dietary fats. The experimental diets substituted the basal diet by 2% of flaxseed oil, rapeseed oil, beef tallow, or fish oil, respectively. As expected, the total ω-3 fatty acids and the ratio of total ω-3/ ω-6 significantly increased in both flaxseed and fish oil groups when compared with the control diet. No significant change of total saturated fatty acids or ω-3 fatty acids was found in both rapeseed and beef tallow groups. Short-chain ω-3 α-linolenic acid (ALA) in flaxseed oil-fed group was efficiently converted to long-chain ω-3 docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) in the duck liver. This study showed the fatty acid profiling in the duck liver after various dietary fat consumption, provided insight into a dose response change of ω-3 fatty acids, indicated an efficient conversion of short- to long-chain ω-3 fatty acid, and suggested alternative long-chain ω-3 fatty acid-enriched duck products for human health benefits. In conclusion, the two studies in this dissertation provided a fundamental understanding of anti-cancer activity by sorghum phenolic extracts and the conversion of short- to long-chain ω-3 PUFAs in duck liver, contribute to a long term goal of promoting sorghum and duck as sustainable phenolic and ω-3 PUFAs sources as well as healthy food products for human beings

A global assessment of marine heatwaves and their drivers

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause devastating impacts to marine life. Despite the serious consequences of MHWs, our understanding of their drivers is largely based on isolated case studies rather than any systematic unifying assessment. Here we provide the first global assessment under a consistent framework by combining a confidence assessment of the historical refereed literature from 1950 to February 2016, together with the analysis of MHWs determined from daily satellite sea surface temperatures from 1982–2016, to identify the important local processes, large-scale climate modes and teleconnections that are associated with MHWs regionally. Clear patterns emerge, including coherent relationships between enhanced or suppressed MHW occurrences with the dominant climate modes across most regions of the globe – an important exception being western boundary current regions where reports of MHW events are few and ocean-climate relationships are complex. These results provide a global baseline for future MHW process and prediction studies

Of cattle, sand flies and men : a systematic review of risk factor analyses for South Asian visceral leishmaniasis and implications for elimination

Background: Studies performed over the past decade have identified fairly consistent epidemiological patterns of risk factors for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent. Methods and Principal Findings: To inform the current regional VL elimination effort and identify key gaps in knowledge, we performed a systematic review of the literature, with a special emphasis on data regarding the role of cattle because primary risk factor studies have yielded apparently contradictory results. Because humans form the sole infection reservoir, clustering of kala-azar cases is a prominent epidemiological feature, both at the household level and on a larger scale. Subclinical infection also tends to show clustering around kala-azar cases. Within villages, areas become saturated over a period of several years; kala-azar incidence then decreases while neighboring areas see increases. More recently, post kalaazar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) cases have followed kala-azar peaks. Mud walls, palpable dampness in houses, and peridomestic vegetation may increase infection risk through enhanced density and prolonged survival of the sand fly vector. Bed net use, sleeping on a cot and indoor residual spraying are generally associated with decreased risk. Poor micronutrient status increases the risk of progression to kala-azar. The presence of cattle is associated with increased risk in some studies and decreased risk in others, reflecting the complexity of the effect of bovines on sand fly abundance, aggregation, feeding behavior and leishmanial infection rates. Poverty is an overarching theme, interacting with individual risk factors on multiple levels. Conclusions: Carefully designed demonstration projects, taking into account the complex web of interconnected risk factors, are needed to provide direct proof of principle for elimination and to identify the most effective maintenance activities to prevent a rapid resurgence when interventions are scaled back. More effective, short-course treatment regimens for PKDL are urgently needed to enable the elimination initiative to succeed

Projected marine heatwaves in the 21st century and the potential for ecological impact

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events in oceanic systems that can have devastating impacts on ecosystems, causing abrupt ecological changes and socioeconomic consequences. Several prominent MHWs have attracted scientific and public interest, and recent assessments have documented global and regional increases in their frequency. However, for proactive marine management, it is critical to understand how patterns might change in the future. Here, we estimate future changes in MHWs to the end of the 21st century, as simulated by the CMIP5 global climate model projections. Significant increases in MHW intensity and count of annual MHW days are projected to accelerate, with many parts of the ocean reaching a near-permanent MHW state by the late 21st century. The two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) strongly affect the projected intensity of MHW events, the proportion of the globe exposed to permanent MHW states, and the occurrence of the most extreme MHW events. Comparison with simulations of a natural world, without anthropogenic forcing, indicate that these trends have emerged from the expected range of natural variability within the first half of the 21st century. This discrepancy implies a degree of “anthropogenic emergence,” with a departure from the natural MHW conditions that have previously shaped marine ecosystems for centuries or even millennia. Based on these projections we expect impacts on marine ecosystems to be widespread, significant and persistent through the 21st century.This research was supported by the Australian Research Council grants CE170100023 and FT170100106, Natural Environment Research Council International Opportunity Fund NE/N00678X/1, National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2018-05255, and Brian Mason (Impacts of an unprecedented marine heatwave). This project was partially supported through funding from the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version